CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T05:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: sunRunner1D
Prediction Method Note:
Using 978 km/s for initial speed of ejecta, but only generic values of ambient solar wind and other ICME properties are being used. This (like the previous prediction) is to test the forecast pipeline. It is likely that the ToA is biased towards an earlier time.Lead Time: 45.20 hour(s)
Difference: 10.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Pete Riley (PSI) on 2024-01-20T18:49Z
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